Welcome to our weekly analysis of the state of the 2020 campaign.
- Joe Biden continues to dominate the paid media landscape. On broadcast television, the Biden campaign spent $36.5 million over the last week, while the Trump campaign only spent about $14.7 million, according to Advertising Analytics, an ad tracking firm. The Biden campaign has a similar advantage on Facebook, where it spent $4.2 million over the past week, while President Trumps team spent $2.4 million.
- A series of New York Times/Siena College surveys in seven battleground states generated mostly positive news for Mr. Biden, who didnt trail in a single survey. Mr. Trump failed to reach 45 percent supportin any poll. Support for Mr. Biden ranged from 45 percent to 55 percent.
- With Mr. Biden pushing back on the presidents aggressive law-and-order messaging, 53 percent of likely voters in Minnesota and Wisconsin said they thought that Mr. Trump had encouraged violence in America.
- In Wisconsin there was evidence of some possible receptiveness to Mr. Trumps tough talk: It was the only state polled in which voters were just as likely to say that urban rioting was a bigger problem than racism in the criminal justice system, not the other way around.
- But of those more worried about riots, nearly one in five said they planned to vote for Mr. Biden.
Late Friday night, the Supreme Court announced that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died from complications of metastatic pancreas cancer.
The news immediately upended the presidential race, as the death of Supreme Court Justice so synonymous with liberal values presented an opportunity for Mr. Trump and a challenge for Mr. Biden. After months of relative stability in the race, a Senate confirmation fight might aid a president searching for a political lifeline and trying to make the campaign about something other than a referendum on his handling of the pandemic.
Democrats immediately clamored for Mr. Biden to find a way to counter Republican efforts and hold Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, to the same standard he set in 2016, when he refused to fill the seat of Justice Antonin Scalia under former President Barack Obama.
The shock came in a week that otherwise seemed remarkably normal.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden each participated in town hall forums, moderated by ABC News and CNN, which included questions from voters that could not be shrugged off with claims of fake news or media bias. Both candidates also visited Minnesota on Friday, in a push from each party now that early voting has begun in several states. Mr. Trump hit Nevada and Wisconsin as well, while Senator Kamala Harris, Mr. Bidens running mate, made stops in Philadelphia and California.read more
