Equally endangered, though, are any senators who can win re-election when their partys nominee is soundly defeated in the state. Mr. Trump is expected to be competitive only in Maines Second Congressional District, which he won in 2016, and even there polls suggest that Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic nominee, has an edge.
In 1984, when Ronald Reagan won a 49-state landslide, Democrats still netted two Senate seats. And even as recently as 2008, Republicans like Ms. Collins were winning re-election in blue states while Democratic senators were cruising in red ones like South Dakota and West Virginia.
By 2016, though, the results of every Senate race mirrored the states preference in the presidential race.
Now Ms. Collins is no more likely to outrun Mr. Trump by 20 points, as she did John McCain in 2008, than Maine is to embrace crab over lobster as its crustacean of choice.
Her argument, though, is that there are exceptions to this era of polarization, and that well-known lawmakers in lightly populated states can overcome the partisan tide. Senators Jon Tester of Montana and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, for example, both won as Democrats in Republican-leaning states just two years ago.
Theres a lot of parallels, Ms. Collins said. I still believe that most voters want problems solved and that theyre put off by this us-against-them tribalism.
Listening to Ms. Collins kick off her statewide bus tour in Bangor was like stepping into a political time machine.read more
Susan Collins Hasn’t Changed Much, but Maine Has
