Should Mr. Trump mount even a quasi-serious bid for a second term, he would freeze the large field of Republicans quietly plotting the beginnings of a presidential run. Some would-be candidates may be daunted by Mr. Trumps grip on the party base, with his expansive email list, loyal supporters and growing war chest. Others may struggle to cast themselves as the bearers of the presidents legacy should Mr. Trump himself remain in the field.
Another Trump campaign or just the prospect of one could also create difficult political crosscurrents for down-ballot Republican candidates, particularly those in battleground states.
In 2022, the party will again have to defend Senate seats in a number of swing states though having a Democrat in the White House should help their chances, given that the presidents party typically loses seats in the midterm elections. Some Republicans are eager to move past the divisiveness of the Trump era and embrace a message that can win back suburbanites in states like North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Throughout his presidency, Mr. Trump has delighted in backing Republican primary challengers, picking loyalists who generally win the primaries but often lose competitive general election races. If he continues to meddle in primaries as an ex-president, the fear is that the party could end up with nominees who have little appeal beyond their own base.
Of course, American politics arent as consistent as Mr. Trumps hard-right political strategy. The countrys whims can shift quickly, and a political style that was revolutionary in 2016 could be retro by 2024.read more
What Will D.J.T. Do?
